264：214！拜登距胜选还差6票！回看美国教授预测大选结果，40年从未失误！（附视频&解说稿）
美国大选日过了两天后，下一任美国总统是谁仍然没有定论。截至美东时间周四（5日）凌晨，根据美国媒体的统计，民主党总统候选人拜登获得264张选举人票，现任总统特朗普获得214票。赢得总统大选总共需要270张选举人票。
“哪怕到现在为止，两位候选人都仍有机会获得大选的胜利。”芝加哥大学法律和政治学教授金斯伯格（Tom Ginsburg）博士告诉第一财经记者, “内华达州的结果要周四（5日）早上才会公布，还有一些州会更迟一些，所以大选的最终结果可能仍需要数天才能知道。”
因为新冠肺炎疫情导致大量邮寄选票和缺席选票需要比以往更长的清点时间，大选夜没能选出总统在很多人的意料之中。
今天介绍一个神奇的人。他叫艾伦·利希特曼（Allan Lichtman），是一位美国历史学教授。
历来对美国大选结果的预测有很多，但从来没有哪一个人、哪一个机构能像利希特曼教授那样，从1984年以来，连续9次预测美国大选结果，都被他预测中。
1984年的里根，1988年的老布什，1992年的克林顿，1996年的克林顿，2000年的小布什，2004年的小布什，2008年的奥巴马，2012年的奥巴马，以及2016年的川普。没有一次落空。
这样一位「预言帝」，并没有什么显赫的政治背景，他仅仅是一位历史学家，在美利坚大学（American University）做教授，以至于《纽约时报》的采访报道也说：「大多数历史学家都只研究过去，而利希特曼却成功地预测未来。」（Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future.）
最有意思的是他对2016年川普上台的预测。当时，大多数民意调查结果都显示希拉里拥有很大的领先优势，多数推测希拉里获胜是板上钉钉的事，但是，利希特曼教授从他的模型出发，还是认定川普最终会胜出。
他是民主党人，所以川普当选肯定不是他希望看到的，只是他的预测，从不以民意调查为依据，也不受他自己的好恶影响。结果出来后，利希特曼教授的预测再次得到证实。
而且，神奇之处还不止于此。他居然还同时预测，川普上台后会遭国会弹劾，并极可能被免职。果然，2019年川普遭到了弹劾，尽管弹劾最后没有成功，也足以证明利希特曼的神奇。
以他之见，即将开票的美国大选，谁的胜算更大呢？来看看8月份《纽约时报》连线Allan Lichtman，对2020年美国总统结果进行了分析，他认为特朗普会落选。一起来看看视频里他是怎么说的？
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This is professor Allan Lichtman. He's taught history at American University for almost 50 years. He's a former steeplechase champion. "It's a race designed for horses but run by people." "Tic-Tac-Dough." And a former quiz show winner. "I had a 16-show winning streak. Won four cars." But we're not here to talk about any of that.
We're here because "Allan Lichtman" "Allan Lichtman" "Allan Lichtman" is the Nostradamus of presidential elections. He's accurately predicted them for four decades. Yes, even that one. "Donald Trump sent me a note. Congrats professor. Good call. In his big Sharpie letters."
Now Allan's ready to tell us who will win in 2020. But we'll come back to that. Allan Lichtman is certain we've been thinking about elections all wrong. "The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races. But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country."
So polls are worthless? "They are snapshots in time. None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election." So Allan Lichtman designed a better system to predict presidential winners. He calls it "The Keys to the White House." And like some other politics these days, there's a Russian involved. "
In 1981, I met Vladimir Keilis-Borok. Vladimir turned to me and said, we are going to collaborate." By the way, Vladimir wasn't a historian or a politician. He was a leading expert in predicting earthquakes. "This point, I thought the guy was either nuts or KGB."
He wasn't. "We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power." So they got to work. "We looked at every presidential election from 1860 to 1980." What they found were 13 keys. Only two of which have anything to do with the traits of the candidates.
Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election. First in 1984, calling it two years early before anyone even knew who Reagan's contender would be. In 1988, calling it in spring when Bush was trailing Dukakis. Again in '92, '96 and in 2000, when he called it for Al Gore? Hey, Allan. "No, no, I wasn't wrong. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote.
When I first developed the system in '81, you had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote." So Allan eventually started calling the winner, not just the popular vote, which was useful 16 years later when, well, you know. "I'm a Democrat. And the toughest thing in being a forecaster is to keep your own politics out of it." But that's enough history, professor.
Let's get to it. What do Allan's 13 keys predict for 2020? "And remember, an answer of 'true' always favors the re-election of the White House party. If six or more of the keys are false, you get a political earthquake."
OK, No. 1: The White House party gained House seats between midterm elections. "Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018. So false."
No. 2: There is no primary contest for the White House party. "No Republicans challenged Trump for his renomination. So true."
No. 3: The incumbent seeking. The sitting president is running for re-election. "Doesn't look like he's stepping down, so true."
Four: There is no third-party challenger. "Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race." This is looking pretty good for Trump so far.
No. 5: The short-term economy is strong. "The pandemic has pushed the economy into recession. False."
Six: Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms. "The pandemic has caused such negative G.D.P. growth in 2020 that the key has turned false."
No. 7: The White House has made major changes to national policy. "Through his big tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era. So true."
No. 8: There is no social unrest during the term. "There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order. So false."
No. 9: The White House is untainted by scandal. "My favorite key. As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus he has plenty of other scandals. So false."
No. 10: The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad. "We've had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump. But so far, true."
11: The White House has a major success abroad. "While Trump hasn't had any big splashy failures, he hasn't had any major successes either. So false."
12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic. "Donald Trump is a great showman. But he only appeals to a narrow slice of the American people. And as a result, false."
13: The challenger is uncharismatic. "Biden is a decent empathetic person, but he's not inspirational or charismatic. So true." That means — "The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House." That's Allan Lichtman's prediction. And Allan Lichtman is always right.
"Don't just take my word for it. There are forces at play outside the keys — voter suppression, Russian meddling. It's up to you the voters to decide the future of our democracy. So get out and vote. Vote in person. Vote by mail. As Abraham Lincoln said, the best way to predict the future is to choose it."
在2016年版本的《预测下一任总统：入主白宫的关键》（Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House）中，Lichtman 再一次罗列了这13个陈述句，由此预测希拉里还是特朗普将入主白宫：
政党授权（Party Mandate）
竞争（Contest）
执政（Incumbency）
第三政党（Third party）
短期经济（Short-term economy）
长期经济（Long-term economy）
政策改革（Policy change）
社会动荡（Social unrest）
丑闻（Scandal）
外交/军事失败（Foreign/military failure）
外交/军事胜利（Foreign/military success）
当政者的个人魅力（Incumbent charisma）
挑战者的个人魅力（Challenger charisma）
Lichtman 表示，他的理论基础在于，选举主要视乎民众对执政党表现的满意程度。换句话说，在以上13个陈述句中，答案为”是”代表有利执政党，相反，若出现6个或以上的答案为”非”，反对党候选人就会赢得选举。Lichtman根据本届情况，对1、3、4、7、11及12共6个陈述句给出了”非”的答案，因而预测特朗普将胜选，结果也真的如他所料。
尽管又一次料事如神，但其实在大选结果揭盅前，Lichtman 也曾担心自己的长胜纪录将毁于特朗普手上。Lichtman 坦言，自他1984年首次预测总统选举结果以来，本届是最难预测的一届，因为自1860年林肯（Abraham Lincoln）当选美国总统以来，”从来没有出现过像特朗普这样的总统候选人”。
我们从未见过一个候选人，穷毕生精力从他人身上巧取豪夺。他也是第一个在竞选期间不断撤谎的候选人；第一个会引入敌对外国势力，到美国选举中搞局的候选人；第一个将一名满手鲜血的敌对外国独裁者视为榜样的候选人。综观所有例外，特朗普有可能在现实情况及历史案例都对他有利的情况下败选，打破150多年来的规律。
其实除了 Lichtman 教授，还有不少人预测特朗普会当选。今年9月，英国脱欧运动的领军人物之一、英国独立党（UKIP）前党魁法拉杰（Nigel Farage）（编注：法拉杰今年7月辞任 UKIP 党魁，但于今年10月出任该党临时党魁）接受路透社访问时表示：”我强烈认为特朗普会赢得大选。”他分析指，英国公投结果会让特朗普获得更多的支持，那股在全球范围内涌起的民粹主义力量，能推动脱欧派胜出英国公投，也一样能推动共和党赢得美国大选。
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